In recent months, due to the pandemic, we have had the opportunity to experience gradually the transition to a "new normal". But what defines it and what awaits us this year and probably the years to follow? Here are some more answers from McKinsey.

The future of work ahead of time

Before the COVID-19 crisis, the idea of ​​working remotely was in the air, but it was not advancing very far or very quickly. However, the pandemic has changed all that: tens of millions of people have switched to working from home practically overnight and across industries.

According to Michael Fisher, president and general manager of the Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center in the United States, the organisation recorded 2,000 new telemedicine candidates for the entire year 2019, compared to 5,000 in a single week in July 2020. Fisher believes that the share of telemedicine in healthcare could rise to 30% in the future.

The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) estimates that in the future more than 20% of the world's workforce (mostly highly skilled in finance, insurance or IT) could work out of the office most of the time and remain just as efficient. Although this option will not suit everyone's preferences, it is a huge step forward.

There are two important challenges with moving to remote working. One of them is to decide on the role of the office itself, which is a traditional centre for creating culture and a sense of belonging. Another challenge is adapting the workforce to the requirements of automation, digitisation and other technologies. This is true not only for sectors such as banking or telecommunications; it is also a general challenge for sectors not linked to remote work. For example, retailers are increasingly automating payments; if salespeople want to keep their jobs, they will need to learn new skills.

In 2018, the World Economic Forum estimated that more than half of employees would need significant retraining or upgrading their skills by 2022.

Evidence shows that retraining current employees, rather than dismissing them and finding new people, usually costs less and brings benefits that outweigh expenditure. Investing in employees can also foster loyalty, customer satisfaction and a positive brand perception.

Pandemic changes in shopping behaviour is changing consumer businesses forever

In nine of the 13 major countries surveyed by McKinsey, at least two-thirds of consumers say they have tried new types of shopping. The countries surveyed were Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. And in all 13 countries, 65% or more of respondents said they wanted to continue in the same style.

From this it follows that brands which have not found new ways to reach consumers will have to catch up or lag behind the competition. To be precise, the transition to online retail is real and likely to persist.

In the United States, the share of e-commerce in sales in 2019 was expected to reach 24% by 2024, while by July 2020 it had reached 33% of total retail sales. In other words, there was an increase in e-commerce in the first half of 2020, which corresponds to the increase of the previous ten years.

In Europe, surprisingly, the largest increase occurred in countries that used to shop online relatively cautiously. For example, Germany, Romania and Switzerland had the three lowest online retail penetration rates before the COVID-19 crisis. Since then, utilisation has increased by 28, 25 and 18 percentage points - more than in other markets.

However, there are some cautionary remarks, such as the noticeable lack of brand loyalty among online shoppers. Direct selling to consumers requires the development of new skills, abilities and business and pricing models. Nevertheless, the trend is clear: many consumers are moving online and companies must do likewise in order to reach them.

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